【环球外汇】双语阅读货币政策可能打击其赢家

双语阅读：

货币政策可能打击其赢家 环球外汇全球央行行长的举动在决定股市的表现方面超越了其他所有的议题。虽然大量的议题——包括中国和美国的经济增长，欧洲议会选举和美国债务上限迅速接近最后期限等——都将影响舆论，但货币政策占据了中心舞台。

一个人只要查看最近在日本发生的事件就会意识到，货币政策是当前股市的灵丹妙药。

日本股市是全球股市中的休伊特(Lleyton Hewitt)。每年休伊特赢得一连串通往大满贯的比赛时，澳大利亚球迷就会十分兴奋。头条大吼着休伊特如何找回过去的荣誉，百折不挠。而基本面消息总是利好上届冠军，他只是匆匆离场。

日本股市看似在一年的每个月里都给投资者同样的希望，正如评论家自 1990 年起就喊着熊市结束一样。市场要求的多些，因为基本面没有经济增长，人口老龄化和强势货币不断将市场拉回熊市。

在这一背景下，投资者还是使基准日经指数自 11 月中旬以来提升了 23%左右，真让人惊喜不已。

其催化剂是自由民主党当选。该党承诺将通过飓风印钞使日本摆脱经济停滞。该党设定了2%的通胀和日元走弱的目标。尽管日本已经印钞超过 10 年，也积累了世界上最高水平的政府债务，投资者却不断涌入日本股市。

最新的刺激政策显然几乎没有长期成功的可能性。除非它润滑了私营部门的经济增长引擎，否则日本经济将继续随日元的变动起起伏伏。尽管最新一轮政府刺激强调的是，宽松的货币和财政政策是全球股票市场的头号驱动力。投资者也不能忽视了这一现象。

自 2008-2009 年经济大萧条以来，美国的经济增长一直较为羸弱，但美联储向系统中注入了足够的钱，在不到四年的时间里，推动股票市场上扬了巨大的 121%。

投资者乐于支持流动性赌局，最终，不像日本，基本面有所提高。

时间将证明一切，结算日已近在咫尺，但在那之前股票价格仍将攀升。美国 10 年期债券交易仍处于 1.8%，美国股票市场估值高于其长期平均市盈率的 15 倍仍是可行的。

美国投资者面临的大难题是要找出货币政策收紧时，债券利率何时开始走高。

美联储已经制定了未来的蓝图，表示如果失业率从目前的 7.8%下降到 7.2%左右，印钞将停止；当失业率达到 6.5%时，利率将逐渐上调。在这种情况下，经济增长可能会加快，但市盈率会降低，股票市场将陷入挣扎之中。随着美国的经济数据逐渐增强，货币政策的转变可能会出现在 2013 年年末。

对于欧洲来说，宽松的货币政策使得德国、英国和法国的股市在过去的 16 个月里迅速上涨了 26%到 47%。

与此同时，自从欧洲央行表示将印钞以避免灾难以来，意大利和西班牙股市飙升了 44%。

欧洲和日本一样，都是行尸走肉。

最终，基本面停滞不前，人口老龄化和相对生产力逐步下降将导致宽松的货币政策带来的好处逐渐褪色。

澳大利亚最近也加入了货币政策游戏，股市得到了支撑。

14 个月来，澳洲联储已削减了 175 个基点的官方利率。投资者没有立即反应，但 2012 年 6月以来，市场健康上涨了 15%，这引发了对盈利潜能良好的状况下，市盈率越来越贵的担忧。

公司业绩对长期股价来说是至关重要的，但短期(12 到 18 个月)内，投资者将购买相较于利率而言价格较低的股票。除此之外，还有什么能解释上周失业率跳升至 5.4%，国内股市却反弹了呢? 温和的经济数据被视为澳洲联储在 2 月或 3 月削减官方利率的绿灯。由于在圣诞节/新年期间公布的经济数据令人失望，债券市场已经开始打赌 2013 年会降息一次，25 个基点，或有可能两次降息，共 50 个基点。最终结果是自 11 月底以来，股市提升了 6%。

全球投资者的行为强烈表明，2013 年将再次成为由货币政策决定的一年。对一些人来说，紧缩政策将导致股票估值下降，而对另一些，如澳大利亚而言，这将于澳洲联储能宽松到什么程度有关。目前，糟糕的经济消息意味着更低的利率和更高的股票价格。信息很明确：密切关注澳洲联储主席史蒂文斯(Glenn Stevens)在未来的几周内会说些什么。

Monetary policy offers chance to hit winners THE actions of central bankers around the globe will trump all other issues in determining the performance of sharemarkets in 2013.While a raft of topics-including Chinese and US economic growth, European elections and the fast approaching deadline on the US debt ceiling-will all sway opinion, it will be monetary policy that takes centre stage.One only has to look at recent events in Japan to realise that monetary policy is the current elixir of stockmarkets.Japan is the Lleyton Hewitt of global equity markets.Australian tennis fans are beside themselves every year as Hewitt wins a string of matches leading into a grand slam competition.The headlines bellow how Hewitt can recapture past glories and go all the way.Invariably the fundamentals catch up to the former champion and he is bundled out.The Japanese sharemarket seemingly fills investors with the same hope about every 12 months, as commentators call an end to the bear market that began in 1990.The market briefly charges higher only for the fundamentals of no economic growth, ageing population and a strong currency working to lure the bears back into the game.With this backdrop, it comes as some surprise that investors have shunted the benchmark Nikkei index some 23 per cent higher since mid-November.The catalyst has been the election of the Liberal Democrat Party, which had run on a promise to inflate Japan out of its economic stupor through a tsunami of money printing.The party targeted 2 per cent inflation and a weaker yen.Despite Japan already printing money for more than a decade and racking up the highest level of government debt on the planet, investors piled into the Japanese sharemarket.It is obvious the latest stimulus policy has next to no chance of succeeding longer term.Unless it lubricates the engines of private sector economic growth, the Japanese economy will continue to ride the gyrations of the yen.What the latest round of government stimulus does emphasise, though, is that loose monetary and fiscal policies are the No.1 drivers of equity markets around the globe.And investors can"t afford to ignore this phenomenon.Economic growth in the US has been pallid since the great recession of 2008-09 but still the Federal Reserve has pumped enough money into the system to push equity markets up a thumping 121 per cent in less than four years.Investors are happy to go along for the liquidity ride betting that eventually, unlike Japan, the fundamentals will improve.Only time will tell and a day of reckoning is near at hand, but until then share prices grind higher.With the US 10-year bond still trading at just 1.8 per cent, it is quite feasible to value the US sharemarket above its long-term average price to earnings multiple of 15 times.The big conundrum for US investors is working out when bond rates will start to move higher on the back of tighter monetary policy.The Fed has laid out a blueprint for the future by saying that money printing will stop if unemployment falls from the current 7.8 per cent to around 7.2 per cent and interest rates will be ratcheted up when unemployment hits 6.5 per cent.Under this scenario economic growth may jump but price to earnings multiples will compress and the sharemarket will struggle.With US economic data strengthening, this change in monetary policy could start to take hold in late 2013.In the case of Europe, loose monetary policy has seen the German, English and French markets rocket between 26 per cent and 47 per cent higher in the past 16 months.Meanwhile, Italy and Spain have both spiked 44 per cent since the European Central Bank said it would print money to avoid disasters.Europe, like Japan, is a dead man walking.Eventually the fundamentals of a stagnant, ageing population and declining relative productivity will see the benefits of an indulgent monetary policy fade.Australia has also recently joined the monetary policy game and the stock market has found its legs.The Reserve Bank of Australia has cut official interest rates 175 basis points in 14 months.Investors did not respond immediately but since June 2012 our market has risen a healthy 15 per cent, creating concerns that equities are getting expensive on a price-to-earnings multiple with a benign earnings outlook.Company earnings are always critical to the price of a sharemarket in the longer run but in the shorter term(12 to 18 months)investors will buy equities if they are cheap compared to interest rates.How else can you explain the kick in the domestic sharemarket last week when the unemployment rate jumped to 5.4 per cent? The soft economic data was seen as a green light for the RBA to cut official interest rates either in February or March.As the economic data has disappointed during the Christmas/New Year period the bond market has gone from betting on one interest cut of 25 basis points in 2013 to possibly two cuts totalling 50 basis points.The net result has been a 6 per cent lift in the sharemarket since the end of November.The behaviour of investors around the globe strongly suggests that 2013 will be a year determined once again by monetary policy.For some it could see policy tightening causing equity valuations to fall, while for others such as Australia it is all about how loose will the RBA get.For the moment poor economic news means lower interest rates and higher equity prices.The message is clear: keep a close eye on what RBA governor Glenn Stevens has to say in the coming weeks.

【产品和营销】特斯拉杠上拼多多可能是为了打击“窜货”